Key Highlights:
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Metaplanet stock fluctuates between ¥388 and ¥478, heavily influenced by Bitcoin’s movement.
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A breakout above ¥478 could target ¥534 if Bitcoin rises early in 2026.
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Despite a large Bitcoin holding, the short-term outlook remains high-risk, although long-term prospects are promising.
Metaplanet’s stock recently traded near ¥405, after a 14% drop over five days. However, it still holds a modest 13% gain for 2025. The stock is currently in a narrow trading range, where small changes in Bitcoin’s price could trigger significant movement.
Metaplanet’s Bitcoin Strategy:
Metaplanet owns 35,102 Bitcoin, valued at approximately $3.78 billion. With an average purchase price of around $107,606 per Bitcoin, the company faces unrealized losses of about $504 million as Bitcoin trades near $88,000.
Although these losses are not finalized until the Bitcoin is sold, they can impact sentiment, showing how much Bitcoin’s price needs to rise to break even. In Q4, Metaplanet added 4,279 Bitcoin worth about $451 million, purchased at an average of $105,412. This indicates the company’s strategy is focused on long-term growth, rather than short-term trading profits. For 2025, Metaplanet reports a 568.2% increase in its Bitcoin holdings, reflecting the growth in coins, not monetary value.
Public companies, including Metaplanet, now control around 5.1% of Bitcoin’s total supply, with MicroStrategy and Metaplanet leading the charge in Bitcoin accumulation. If Bitcoin stabilizes or turns bullish, demand from institutional buyers could provide a stronger foundation than retail investors alone.
However, the short-term outlook remains challenging, with investors divided between those who see this accumulation as a smart long-term strategy and those concerned about the risks of holding at current prices.
What the Stock Chart Needs to Show:
Metaplanet’s stock price near ¥405 remains neutral, with no significant signs of strength. Buyers are attempting to slow the decline.
The first support level is around ¥388. If Bitcoin weakens further, this level becomes crucial. A drop below ¥388 could increase the likelihood of the price heading towards ¥335, particularly if selling volume rises. These levels have been key price points throughout 2025, making them areas of close attention for traders.
On the upside, the first resistance sits near ¥478. A daily close above this mark could create potential for a rise to ¥534, marking a 13% increase and the first signs of recovery. This would signal that Metaplanet stock is ready to trade with strength, rather than being reactive to Bitcoin’s price fluctuations.
If Bitcoin rallies, Metaplanet’s stock could experience a more substantial move once ¥478 is surpassed. However, if Bitcoin declines, the stock may struggle to hold the ¥388 support level, even with its strong Bitcoin balance sheet.
Where Traders Stand Now:
Metaplanet stock behaves like an amplified version of Bitcoin exposure. When Bitcoin rises, the stock tends to rise faster, and when Bitcoin falls, the stock reacts more sharply. This makes it appealing for high-risk traders looking for larger price movements but less comfortable for conservative investors seeking stability.
Currently, the stock’s price action remains simple:
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Above ¥478: Potential for a rise to ¥534
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Below ¥388: Increased risk towards ¥335
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Between these levels: Trading in a range, not a clear direction
If Bitcoin turns bullish, Metaplanet’s stock could rebound, benefiting from its large Bitcoin holding. If Bitcoin remains weak, however, the stock may face pressure heading into 2026, despite its significant Bitcoin assets.
The company remains confident that patience with Bitcoin will pay off, but the stock chart still requires confirmation before any trend reversal can be confirmed.
